2014 Newsletters

February 2014 – Brrr… January Froze the Markets and the Economy

Frozen economyU.S. equity markets ended January on a seesaw down note as the S&P 500 had a -0.41% return for the week. Despite a -3.5% return for the S&P 500 in January, the worst January return since 2010, the index was last below 1,782 on 12/13/2013, just 32 trading days ago.

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April 2014 – It is What Tiggers Do

tigger_economicsMany of you remember Tigger from Winnie the Pooh. Tigger was the most exuberant character and his most stand out and well-known feature was his very springy tail. When Tigger was in a bouncing mood he is actually expressed his zest for life by bouncing. He acted on impulse and made an impulsive dash most often by jumping around without taking measure of the surroundings. At times, this led to mishap and caused utter mayhem. When asked about the bouncing, he answered, “It is just what Tiggers do best.”

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July 2014 – Understanding the New (Ab)Normal

saupload_green_fishThe key to understanding monetary policy in the United States is to estimate the “potential real GDP growth” – how fast should the economy expand? According to the Federal Reserve, the potential is about 2¼% per year. Using this, the Fed estimates GDP is about 8.5% below potential and monetary policy should remain easy.

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October 2014 – Just Plowing Ahead

snow-plowing-pic-2It has been a while since Wealth Teams sent out and posted a newsletter. There has been little to report. But with the recent decline in the market, it seems like a good time to look at the year in review and to consider what lies ahead.

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December 2014 – Stepping into Line

lineWhat we are seeing here is called “regression to the mean.” The S&P has underperformed its historic average over the last 15 years by nearly 50%. Eventually, we would expect it to come back into alignment. Couple that with a major downturn in the economic activity in Europe, China and Japan, and we have a global slowdown which is reflected in the stock market prices in general.

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