2013 Newsletters

January 2013 – Fiscal Cliff Postponed

Fiscal CliffIn a 13th hour drama, Congress averted the “fiscal cliff” by passing legislation late into the evening on New Year’s Day.  The bill avoids wide tax increases and budget cuts which were scheduled to take effect January 1st.  The measure would raise taxes by about $600 billion over the next  10 years…

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February 2013 – Have Stocks Hit the Snooze Button?

snooze

As a passive market manager, it is out of character to watch the market closely. Markets go up and markets go down. But recent days have been interesting and deserve a comment. The market has been on a 3 month upward ascent, but has recently hit the snooze button. Many of the voodoo economists are predicting a major correction and planting seeds of doubt…

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March 2013 – The Coming Interest Rate Effect

interest ratesMost of the Hi-Fos (high information voters) have been watching the sequestration dance in Washington with a modicum of interest. After the threats of starvation, mass killings and who knows what else, the deadline passed and the President got hoisted on his own petard. Meaning, it was his idea and it backfired on him…

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March 2013 – Nattering Nabobs of the News

newsAs you know, We manage markets, not stocks. So what are the trends in the market that are causing the US markets to hit multi-year highs as the economy seemingly shrugs off any negative news. Remember, Markets go up and Markets go down. Here are three possible factors driving this market higher…

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April 2013 – Comments on the Economy

economyStocks started the 2nd quarter straining to reach new highs until the ISM manufacturing survey reported a decline from 54.2 to 51.3. This fell below expectations of 54.0. Traders quickly snatched some profits out of the market…

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June 2013 – The Bernanke Effect

bernankeThe punditry (media?) has decided anything good happening is actually bad. It is all just a sugar high – based on Quantitative Easing and government stimulus – and that talk of winding down or tapering QE is negative speak. So the latest fear is that any good data on growth is actually bad news, because it means when the Fed winds down QE the economy will collapse…

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August 2013 – Irrational Exuberance?

business cycle 2Robert Shiller, in his book, “Irrational Exuberance,” argued the 10-year averages of corporate earnings smooths out the ups and downs of the business cycle. Using this “cyclically-adjusted” level of earnings, he then compared it to current stock prices and claimed this was a better way to evaluate the Price-Earnings ratio of a stock…

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September 2013 – Are The BEARS Coming?

bearThe US economy keeps plodding along like a good plow horse. GDP and payrolls keep growing and continues to confound the many pessimists, who are debt-focused and trying to convince the media we are on the verge of a perma-bear market. Their mantra is anything that sounds like good news is temporary and probably a lie…

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October 2013 – Are The BEARS Coming?

bearThe US economy keeps plodding along like a good plow horse. GDP and payrolls keep growing and continues to confound the many pessimists, who are debt-focused and trying to convince the media we are on the verge of a perma-bear market. Their mantra is anything that sounds like good news is temporary and probably a lie…

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November 2013 – Reading the Fed

fedThe threat of tapering is a hollow threat. QE has not helped the economy, so keeping it around is not a good idea. It is now creating uncertainty at an unprecedented level. But, no one is holding their breath waiting for the Fed to change course. At this point, it is a political anvil for the government…

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December 2013 – Wailing and Gnashing of Teeth

WailingPayrolls keep growing. Economic data stays positive. The stock market makes new highs. It’s been consistent for nearly five years. And so has the pessimism. In fact, the pouting pundits of pessimism get more determined each month, trying to prove that things are really bad out there and their predictions are about to come true. One of these days they will be right…

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