2012 Newsletters

January 2012 – Looking Back to January 2011

historyLooking back to January 2011, the year started on a high note and ended on one, too.  What happened in the middle was frantic, noisy and bothersome to most investors.

A year ago, in late 2010, the bears seemingly had gone to sleep…

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February 2012 – We Had Growth — Where Is The Impact?

growth impactIt was announced real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from 1.7% in Q3 and its strongest growth since Q2 2010.  The Q4 increase came in just slightly below the consensus estimate of 3%.  However the market reaction was less than favorable. WHY? Consumption and business investment were weaker than expected and while inventories jumped there may be no prolonged impact…

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March 2012 – QE3? Jobs?

jobsIt was a Fed-watchers delight when Ben Bernanke told the US Congress there would be no QE3 and that the next move by the Fed would be to tighten monetary policy.Oops! That’s not what he said. There were no quotable quotes to that effect. In fact, lots of people thought he said the opposite. A Wall Street Journal headline read Recovery Worries Weigh on Stocks, as “Bernanke took a cautious view of the U.S. recovery.”

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April 2012 – Growing Economy in April

april 2012Most of Aprils’ economic data evidences a growing economy. The most notable exception was existing homes sales which are still struggling in parts of the country. Given the political environment and the upcoming elections, people are looking for any type of good news to encourage them. The optimistic consumers are looking for any reason to spend. Disposable income has increased 3.2% over the last 12 months, driving consumption up 4.1%…

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June 2012 – Pouting Pundits of Pessimism

PessimismThe Pouting Pundits of Pessimism hyperventilated over the weaker-than-expected 69,000 increase in May payrolls. There was also a downward revision in first quarter real GDP growth to 1.9%, the 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 1.5% and a stock market went back to zero for the year. Here come the bears, the predictions of doom and gloom and repeated prophecies of the end times upon us…

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August 2012 – Economic News Tied to Employment

employmentWhat to expect? No one knows for certain, but it is likely the cliff will NOT happen. Here are our thoughts.

Everyone now knows the outcome of the elections. With Obama winning a second term (by three percent of the popular vote), he now feels he has a mandate to tax the rich. He swept the battleground states and won the Electoral College handily…

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September 2012 – The Fed Seems Ready To Do Something

Do somethingThe Federal Reserve seems ready to do something about the economy. In recently released minutes from the 7/31-8/1 meeting and a letter from Chairman Bernanke to Congressman Darrell Issa (R-CA), the Fed argued its actions had helped the economy already and that the Fed was ready to do more…

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October 2012 – The Fiscal Cliff Is Looming

Fiscal Cliff loomingEveryone knows the fiscal cliff is looming. Remember the movie, Thelma and Louise? They are about to drive off the cliff, in one last climatic scene of independence and stupidity. You don’t have to go and watch the movie because our very own federal government is heading toward the fiscal cliff. It should be spectacular if Congress does not turn the wheel…

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November 2012 – Taxmageddon

taxmageddon

What to expect? No one knows for certain, but it is likely the cliff will NOT happen. Here are our thoughts.

Everyone now knows the outcome of the elections. With Obama winning a second term (by three percent of the popular vote), he now feels he has a mandate to tax the rich. He swept the battleground states and won the Electoral College handily…

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December 2012 – Sandy’s Effect On The Economy

hurricane sandyPayrolls keep growing. Economic data stays positive. The stock market makes new highs. It’s been consistent for nearly five years. And so has the pessimism. In fact, the pouting pundits of pessimism get more determined each month, trying to prove that things are really bad out there and their predictions are about to come true. One of these days they will be right…

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