2011 Newsletters

June 2011 – The Newsletter is Back!

ukraine-casts-shadow-as-investors-take-pulse-of-fragile-economyLooking back over the last couple of weeks, we can see how really fragile the US economy seems to be. After the 2000-2003 bubble, the economy bounced back quickly and the unemployed were able to get back to work rather quickly.

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GDP Growth Disappointing

Index-slamps-1Real GDP growth in the second quarter disappointed economists when it was revised down slightly but came very close to consensus expectations. The good news however, is the composition of the growth. It promises the economy in the second half of the year has some upward momentum.

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July 2011 – Politics and the Economy

20111128-politics-economy-businessThe markets rebounded somewhat in light of the Greece bankruptcy being postponed. Their politicians are obviously as devoted to spending as ours in the US. It is hard to find ways to cut excess spending when everything is a necessity.

Economic news reported personal incomes increased 0.3% in May with a similar increase in April. March came in at 0.4%.   During this time income shifted slightly towards non-wage income as job growth slowed markedly these past few months.

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Mid-July 2011 – The GDP Report

GDP-ReportWhile some economists are reducing their projections for second half growth, there are reasons to remain confident a relatively strong rebound from a weak first half will happen. Real GDP is projected to grow at a 4% to 4.5% average annual rate in Q3 and Q4 2011.

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July 2011 – Comments on the Debt Ceiling

110410_debt_clock_2010_ap_328Contrary to popular belief, many money managers are saying the “debt ceiling” has turned into the investor’s best friend. Professional politicians don’t like it, because they don’t want to limit their degrees of freedom. But the “limit” on debt, forces a debate about the size of government (and spending) before the USA gets to the point of no return. In other words, the debt ceiling is a really good thing.

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Mid-August 2011 – Rollercoaster

roller-coaster

The world’s stock markets acted like a true rollercoaster this week, in all senses of the word: they took us to thrilling highs and heart-stopping lows, but then dropped us off pretty much where we started.

It was a historic week that saw the first-ever four day string of 400-point-plus moves on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It started Monday with a stunning fall of 635 points on the Dow. Yet here we are after the close of trading on Friday, and the Dow is down just 1.7 percent for the week.

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October 2011 – October Blues

october bluesInvestors expected something dramatic from the Fed in September. They had three options, cut or eliminate the interest rate the Fed pays banks on reserves. Next they could have introduced Quantitative Easing III (QE3) or finally they could try to bring down long-dated Treasury yields, referred to as Operation Twist.

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November 2011 – Euro Crisis & Occupy Wall Street Keep October Busy

Occupy Wall Street Protestors March Down New York's Fifth AvenueThe ups and downs of the economy continued in October as the Euro crisis continued to keep investors skittish. Coupled with the Occupy Wall Street disturbance and the looming budget talks, it has been difficult for the economy to gain confidence about the next week let alone the coming months. But despite all the disruption, the resiliency of the economy still proves to be our greatest asset.

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November 2011 – The Super Committee – Does this really matter?

super-committee.gi.topThe television and new media is filled with some talking head expounding on the Super Committee – the 12 members of Congress who have been tasked with the role of cutting the deficit over the next 10 years by $1.2 trillion. That sounds like a big job and important task. But is it?

These talking heads say – the Super Committee is the biggest and most important issue facing the economy. One news anchor went so far as to say the committee’s decisions will determine how retailers do this year during the holiday shopping season. Others are trying to make the case that failure to come to agreement will cause us to slip into another recession.

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December 2011 – Economic Factors Pointing To 2012 Growth

2012 Growth arrowWe have all watched with amazement as Europe has twisted and turned around the falling visages of socialism as it wracks its death knell on government intervention. If ever the world needed evidence socialism does not work, the European test tube is a great example. Unfortunately, the death throes have had a telling impact on the US economy and the stock market. As a result, we have seen the market react even though the economy has shown signs of life.

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